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Observing the Rise of Cadet and the Fall of Forte

All the skill positions during the 2015 NFL offseason have been reviewed, in addition to all the sleepers and busts. Things can change in the blink of an eye. Ameer Abdullah’s value has decreased considerably. Three weeks ago, he had a ninth round ADP. Currently he has dropped to the end of Round 6, possibly an early Round 7 in non-PPR and also PPR late round 4/early round 5. When building a fantasy football team that will win many games this upcoming 2015 fantasy season, these are very important factors.

We’re going to do a more accurate analysis with the sleepers at the running back position; and a more deeper breakdown with the busts as well. Click away for the previous analysis on both sleepers and busts at every position.

SLEEPER: TRAVARIS CADET, NE

This definitely is a unique sleeper, as Mr. Cadet is undrafted in both PPR and non-PPR leagues. Even by playing Best Ball fantasy game format, Cadet is still waiting there, at round 18 in non-PPR, round 20 in PPR. This may sound a bit confusing, but remember, New England has 7 running backs in training camp. However, they will not keep all 7 of them.

Currently they have Cadet, plus also LeGarette Blount, who’s the presumed starter. afterwards there’s utter confusion. There’s Jonas Gray, who had a few game snaps last year, but not enough to be a big factor, as well as Brandon Bolden, who’s untested as of yet, James Develin, Tyler Gaffney, and James White. The aforementioned last five names could still make a splash of some kind, although, as mentioned earlier, not all 7 will make the team. The Patriots didn’t sign him without knowing he will make the team; they have enough confidence in his talent and abilities on the filed to make such an investment. Last year Gray showed enough skills as a runner that the team may have the trifecta of Blount, Cadet, and Gray. Bolden should be more suited for both special teams and as an option in passing. He appears to be a lock but has an uphill battle with both Gaffney and White. With Blount suspended for Week 1, Cadet will definitely see some playing time. This is why he should be chosen for your tem come Week 1.

He’ll eventually replace veteran Shane Vereen. His passing game needs improvement, but he has the most passing potential of any of the running backs the Patriots currently have. Last year, he was misused badly in New Orleans. However, he still managed to be productive, garnering 296 yards on 38 catches , along with a touchdown. In PPR leagues, having even three touchdowns will place Cadet in the top 50. In Deep Leagues and Best Ball game formats he’ll give fantasy teams a couple of nice games at least. That’s why he’s worth your monetary investment this year.

BUST; MATT FORTE, CHI

Over the last 8 seasons, no running back has amassed more carries, with Forte’s 1,817 to Chris Johnson’s 1,897. However, Mr. Johnson isn’t on any NFL roster, which should give fantasy players some concern. It appears the word around is that Mr. Johnson may be burnt out and hold very little fantasy value. Should this be the same concern for Forte? After all, the running back level of work can be a grueling grind, even for the best players. Forte leads all running backs with touches, with 2,260. Johnson is second with 2,203, Steven Jackson, another possible burnout victim who currently is a free agent, is third with 2,042, and current Minnesota Viking Adrian Peterson is fourth with 2,040. Of importance is that two of these running backs, Jackson and Johnson, are practically done with football; you can stick a fork in them. Peterson was coming off a season of “forced rest.”

In conversations regarding running backs with at least 1,000 carries since 2008, Forte ranks just 15th in yards per attempt (YPA)at 4.24. This places him behind such standouts as Frank Gore, Maurice Jones-Drew, Michael Turner, and Fred Jackson. Over the last three years, Forte ranks just 20th in YPA at 4.32 for players with a minimum of 200 carries. His worst YPA was last year, with 3.9. Undoubtedly having an inconsistent quarterback in Jay Cutler was a factor in his decreased YPA. This is also the second year he’s had more than 360 touches, and the second highest total since his rookie year, with 379.

All these are important fantasy considerations for why Matt Forte should be regarded as a bust and not worth having on your team. Fantasy Points Per Touch (FPPT) is just as important, and worth talking about. Regarding the first group[, one with 1,000 + carries, since 2008, Forte ranks 13th in FPPT at 0.66, using Yahoo! scoring methods. In the second group, he ranks just at 0.67. This ranking places him behind names such as Pierre Thomas, LeGarrette Blount and Daniel Thomas (Who?).

This isn’t being thrown at you to give you math nightmares. It’s to effectively illustrate that Mr. Forte is more of a volume fantasy player than most players know. While he’s a good choice, he’s not among the elite running backs. In addition he’s not going to provide positive results without some grueling work. He finished as RB 12 in 2012 when he had only 292 touches. Not having Marc Trestman as a head coach should help, as Mr. Trestman never liked using running backs in the passing game. That’s one reason I’m so in love with Justin Forsett this year.

Over the last 8 years, Forte has a large amount of work; his touches this year will significantly drop. It’s why I ranked him RB8 in PPR and RB12 in non-PPR. He’s simply not worth your long term monetary investment or your time, for that matter.

GRFF Staff

GRFF Staff

Where the hell am I and where are my shoes.

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